If the BISG does not give Audible the award this year for “redefining what modern publishing can look like” with its Harry Potter full-cast audio, then the BISG is not fit for purpose.

When Spotify announced in August 2020 that it was recruiting an audiobook supremo for its US operations, the publishing industry’s response was swift, dismissive, and near-universal: laughter.

The Swedish streaming giant, which had dominated music and was making inroads with podcasts, was venturing into audiobook territory – and the establishment was having none of it. Industry gatekeepers from London to New York scoffed at the notion that a mere music platform could understand the sacred art of book publishing. The UK’s Society of Authors, then led by Nicola Solomon, wasted not a second in warning members that any Spotify deal would have a “devastating impact.” Meanwhile, Markus Dohle, then-CEO of Penguin Random House, the world’s largest trade publisher, was even more emphatic in his condemnation.

“When it comes to subscription, I am convinced that in the long run it is not good for author income, it is not good for retail” – Markus Dohle

At a November 2021 FutureBook Conference, as Spotify acquired audiobook distributor Findaway for $123 million and Storytel snapped up Audiobooks.com for $135 million, Count Dohle told The Bookseller‘s Philip Jones in characteristically grave tones: “When it comes to subscription, I am convinced that in the long run it is not good for author income, it is not good for retail. Look at these investments this week: big bucks flowing into the United States publishing industry, Storytel and Spotify entering the scene.” He went further, warning that subscription streaming could close every bricks-and-mortar retail store within three years unless traditional publishing models prevailed. If subscription was allowed to flourish, Dohle suggested, the US publishing industry would become dependent on Swedish companies – a fate he painted as nothing short of catastrophic.

At the exact same time, of course, Dohle was trying to convince a court to allow the PRH German parent company Bertelsmann to buy Simon & Schuster for over $2 billion.

“Spotify’s move into audiobooks is a seismic shift in the publishing landscape, but the ripples will take time to be felt” – TNPS

But there was one voice in the wilderness predicting something entirely different. In my August 2020 essay for The New Publishing Standard, I wrote: “Spotify’s move into audiobooks is a seismic shift in the publishing landscape, but the ripples will take time to be felt.” While the ripples wouldn’t be immediately visible, I argued, we were witnessing an earthquake at sea that would eventually send stormy waves – possibly a tsunami – crashing onto shore.

Five years on, that tsunami has arrived.

The Numbers That Tell the Story

Spotify Audiobooks launched to Premium subscribers in the US, UK, and Australia in October 2023. Just over two years later, the platform can point to achievements that have stunned even its most optimistic supporters.

The service now operates in 14 markets worldwide:

  • English-language markets: United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand
  • European markets: France, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Liechtenstein
  • Nordic markets (launched November 2025): Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Monaco
  • In addition, Spotify has pilot schemes up and running in Saudi Arabia, UAE, India and Indonesia.

In its two years since launch, Spotify’s audiobooks arm has:

  • Tripled its catalogue to over 500,000 titles in English-language markets (up from 150,000 at launch)
  • Engaged more than half of eligible Premium users in English-language markets
  • Driven 36% year-over-year growth in audiobook listeners
  • Increased listening hours by 37% year-over-year
  • Attracted an audience where 52% are under 35 years old

The recently launched Audiobooks+ subscription add-on saw consumption increase 18% within users’ first 30 days. In France and the Benelux region, just one year after launch, listening hours were up 10% month over month, making them among the fastest-growing audiobook markets globally. In Germany, six months post-launch, listeners grew 9% month over month as engagement continued to build.

But the real vindication came from the publishers themselves – many the same publishers who had dismissed Spotify’s ambitions so contemptuously.

UK publisher Bloomsbury reported that audio sales during its 2025 fiscal year “grew 57 percent in part driven by our new commercial relationship with Spotify.” French publisher Lagardère mentioned in its 2024 financial report that “digital sales grew significantly in the audio segment (up 38%), driven by a new partnership with Spotify.” US publisher HarperCollins reported that in the fourth quarter of 2024, audiobook sales rose by 13% compared to Q4 2023, with parent company News Corp – whose CEO Robert Thomson has repeatedly cited Spotify as the catalyst – pointing to the streaming service’s entrance as driving double-digit growth.

Spotify is now paying hundreds of millions of dollars annually to audiobook rights holders, expanding the pie for everyone in the industry.

The broader market tells the same story. The Audio Publishers Association reported that US audiobook sales grew 13% in 2024 to $2.22 billion, with 99% of revenues generated by digital audiobooks. The Association of American Publishers noted that audiobook revenues soared by 23% in 2024, contributing to an overall 6.5% revenue increase for the entire book ecosystem. In the UK, audiobook revenue reached £268 million in 2024 – the highest figure on record and a 31% increase from 2023.

Spotify is now paying hundreds of millions of dollars annually to audiobook rights holders, expanding the pie for everyone in the industry.

The Dohle Reversal: A Case Study in Institutional Resistance

The transformation of Penguin Random House’s position on Spotify provides perhaps the most illuminating case study of the industry’s evolution. Under Dohle’s leadership, PRH had steadfastly refused to participate in unlimited subscription models, viewing them as existential threats to author income and the retail infrastructure. Dohle’s hostility extended beyond business strategy into something approaching ideological warfare. During the failed 2022 trial to acquire Simon & Schuster, he solemnly told the court that Swedish subscription platforms represented the biggest threat to publishing, despite the fact that Spotify’s $123 million acquisition of Findaway paled beside Bertelsmann’s proposed $2.175 billion for S&S.

Yet within months of Dohle’s departure from PRH in December 2022, the publisher reversed course entirely. The new leadership partnered with Spotify Audiobooks, and all indications suggest the decision has proved spectacularly successful. Amanda D’Acierno, who oversees audio at Penguin Random House US, told The New York Times in 2024: “What we’ve seen here in the US is very, very good. They’re reaching people who don’t go to bookstores often.”

The Society of Authors, meanwhile, quietly shelved its anti-Spotify campaign once artificial intelligence emerged as a new bogeyman to rail against. Institutional memory being what it is, few seemed to remember Solomon’s dire warnings about subscription’s “devastating impact.”

Why the Sceptics Were Wrong: Lessons from Music Streaming

The publishing industry’s resistance to Spotify mirrored almost exactly the music industry’s initial response to streaming – fears of devalued content, artist exploitation, and industry collapse. Yet music streaming didn’t destroy the industry; it saved it.

Data from the Recording Industry Association of America tells a compelling story. From 2009 through mid-decade, music revenues were in freefall. Then Spotify (2011), Apple Music (2015), Amazon Music (2016), and Deezer (2016) launched their unlimited streaming services. The initial uptake was slow. This reflected music publisher resistance more than consumer resistance. Put simply, with little content available, consumers were not strongly attracted to the model. But as more players entered the market and competition intensified, publisher resistance became futile. Music publishers learned to embrace and exploit the subscription opportunity, with spectacular results.

The US streaming market in 2019 was larger than the entire US recorded music market just two years earlier.

By 2019, streaming music services accounted for 79.5% of all recorded music revenues in the US, growing nearly 20% to $8.8 billion. The US streaming market in 2019 was larger than the entire US recorded music market just two years earlier. Streaming didn’t devalue music; it democratised access, increased discovery, and fundamentally changed consumer behaviour in ways that expanded the market.

As Mitch Glazier, Chairman and CEO of RIAA, noted: “Music isn’t ‘transitioning to digital’. It is leading a digital-first business.” The same transformation is now underway in audiobooks, with Spotify as the catalyst.

The fundamental insight that Dohle and others missed was that subscription models don’t replace sales – they create new categories of consumers. In elementary economic terms, the old model meant consumers bought the album they liked most, while the opportunity cost was all the other content they couldn’t afford, which stayed out of reach and likely completely unknown. Subscription changed everything by offering choice, affordability, and discoverability.

Spotify isn’t cannibalising existing audiobook sales; it’s bringing entirely new audiences to the format.

The same dynamic applies to audiobooks. Spotify isn’t cannibalising existing audiobook sales; it’s bringing entirely new audiences to the format. Nielsen data for the UK shows that 24% of users who consumed an audiobook in 2024 did so for the first time that year. These are listeners who might never have purchased audiobooks à la carte but are now consuming them via subscription.

Two Roads Diverge: Audible’s Big Production vs Spotify’s Market Expansion

The contrasting strategies of Amazon’s Audible and Spotify illuminate two fundamentally different visions for the audiobook future.

Audible is comfortable with its dominant position and credit-based subscription model. It has served it well, has publishers and consumers happy, and mostly is not threatened by the upstarts with their unlimited models. That said, Audible offers the unlimited model in Italy and Spain, and offers some markets an unlimited option for a sub-section of its catalogue.

Bob Carrigan has the option to switch models at any time, subject to publisher resistance, and that might happen were Spotify to gain significant traction in the core markets at the expense of Audible. But that’s unlikely in the near future.

Audible, backed by parent company Amazon’s resources and wider ambitions, is more interested in flexing its financial and creative muscles in new ways to keep consumers on board with prestige productions.

Meanwhile Audible, backed by parent company Amazon’s resources and wider ambitions, is more interested in flexing its financial and creative muscles in new ways to keep consumers on board with prestige productions. Its full-cast audio edition of the Harry Potter series – launched in November 2025 with Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone – represents the pinnacle of this approach. The production is genuinely spectacular: over 200 voice actors including Hugh Laurie as Dumbledore, Matthew Macfadyen as Voldemort, and Riz Ahmed as Snape; a 60-piece orchestra performing an original score by Nitin Sawhney; Dolby Atmos spatial audio; over 2,000 recording hours; and sequential monthly releases through May 2026.

Bob Carrigan Audible’s CEO, told audiences at the London launch event that this “will reshape the whole sector” and represents “a pivotal moment, not just for us, but for the entire audiobook category.” Rachel Ghiazza, Audible’s Chief Content Officer, predicted the new recordings would surpass the 1.8 billion listening hours already achieved by the previous Jim Dale and Stephen Fry versions.

It’s undeniably impressive – a cinematic audio experience that redefines what audiobooks can be. But it’s also emblematic of Audible’s strategy: investing enormous resources in premium productions of already-massive properties to delight existing subscribers in established markets.

In doing so it puts clear blue water between itself and its competitors.

Spotify, by contrast, has pursued aggressive geographic expansion into markets where audiobook infrastructure is weak, although the recent launch in the Nordic countries – including, significantly, Spotify’s home market of Sweden – was a bold statement. Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Iceland represent mature audiobook markets where competitors like Storytel and Bonnier’s BookBeat already command significant market share. Yet Spotify is confident its platform advantages – 300,000 titles including the region’s largest English-language catalogue on a consumption-based service, plus robust local-language content in partnership with Bonnier – will attract the millions of Nordics who have Spotify Premium but not audiobook subscriptions.

We don’t have to explain what an audiobook is or how amazing they are. That’s something we still think we have to do a lot in the rest of the world

Owen Smith, Spotify’s head of audiobooks, told Publishers Weekly: “These are really rich, mature markets for audio listening. We don’t have to explain what an audiobook is or how amazing they are. That’s something we still think we have to do a lot in the rest of the world.”

The strategy is audience acquisition over production spectacle – expansion over entrenchment. While Audible pours resources into making Harry Potter even more magical for existing fans, Spotify is opening doors for millions of potential listeners who’ve never tried an audiobook. Both strategies have merit, but one is fundamentally expanding the global market, while the other expands the mature markets it is already focussed on.

The exciting thing for the industry is that both companies are big enough to compete without resorting to stealing market share from one another, and the markets – even in the Nordics – are still far from saturated. They will ride on each others successes.

And as Spotify proves new markets are sustainable, so Audible, Storytel and the myriad other players in this field will assess the opportunities.

Winding up this section, just to add Norway is notably absent from the Scandinavian push by Spotify, almost certainly because of Norwegian’s book laws, not because there is deemed no interest. The new pilots in Saudi Arabia and the UAE build on growing interest in audiobooks in Arabic-speaking countries, where Audible has yet to make any serious moves (Amazon operates in these countries), while in India Spotify takes on Storytel and Audible, but in a country of such vast potential, all parties will be laughing all the way to the bank. While in Indonesia, again massive potential, but only Storytel among the western players is present so far.

The AI Question: Expansion Tool or Existential Threat?

Perhaps no aspect of Spotify’s audiobook strategy has generated more controversy than its embrace of AI-narrated content. In February 2025, Spotify announced support for audiobooks narrated using ElevenLabs’ AI voice technology, allowing authors to create audiobooks in 29 languages and distribute them via Spotify’s Findaway Voices platform.

For independent authors, the economics are compelling. Professional audiobook narration has historically required booking hours or days of studio time – prohibitively expensive for most. ElevenLabs enables authors to upload documents (.epub, .pdf, .txt, .html, .docx), edit delivery with simple tools, and generate lifelike narration. A full-length audiobook can be produced for around $99 monthly (the Pro subscription offering 500 minutes of narration), versus thousands of pounds for professional recording.

Spotify is transparent about AI narration. All digitally narrated titles are clearly labelled in metadata, with book descriptions prepended with: “This audiobook is narrated by a digital voice.” The company has also introduced AI-powered “Recaps” features, offering listeners short audio summaries of portions they’ve already heard – useful for those returning to books after breaks.

The backlash has been predictable and vociferous. Professional voice actors fear job displacement and declining industry standards. Many argue AI voices lack the emotional expression and narrative depth that human narrators provide. Author John Scalzi includes contractual riders guaranteeing only human narrators work on his books. Critics like Good e-Reader dismiss AI audiobooks as “low-quality garbage.”

The backlist of global publishing runs to millions of titles, the vast majority never converted to audio because the economics don’t justify professional narration.

Yet the debate misses a crucial distinction. Spotify isn’t replacing human narration with AI; it’s enabling content that would otherwise never exist in audio format. The backlist of global publishing runs to millions of titles, the vast majority never converted to audio because the economics don’t justify professional narration. AI narration provides a pathway for these works to reach audio audiences- expanding, not replacing, the market.

Audible of course is no stranger to AI. It recently launched a new beta-option for self-publishers to produce AI-assisted audiobooks through Audible. It’s notable how subdued the opposition is when Audible does the same thing that incites spasms of self-righteous indignation when Spotify is behind the move.

Data from the Audio Publishers Association’s 2025 Consumer Survey shows willingness to try AI-narrated audiobooks has declined from 77% in 2023 to 70% in 2025, suggesting consumers remain discerning. But 70% is still a substantial majority, and as AI voices improve – and they’re improving rapidly – the quality gap narrows.

The parallel with the music industry is again instructive. Streaming was initially viewed as devaluing music and exploiting artists. Yet professional musicians now thrive in the streaming ecosystem, with the market expanded to unprecedented levels. AI narration is likely to follow a similar trajectory: initial resistance, quality improvements, market expansion, and eventual integration as one tool among many.

Spotify’s position appears to be pragmatic rather than ideological. In its announcement, the company stated: “As Spotify continues to roll out audiobooks to new listeners worldwide, we’re committed to providing authors with tools that help them reach those listeners and lowering the barrier to entry so more authors than ever can have their books heard.”

This is market expansion at its core – using technology to bring more content to more listeners in more languages, thereby growing the entire ecosystem.

Let me add here that way back in the ebook dark ages of the 2010s, it was Amazon’s stated ambition to make every book, in every language in the world available in the Kindle store. It never happened, of course, and today the Kindle store, powerful as it is, is limited to a handful of core markets. Not least because ebook competitors with global reach have never been able to get enough traction to suggest to Amazon it was worthwhile pursuing smaller markets.

That could change with audiobooks as Spotify enters and grows out more markets. Micro-markets like the Nordics are probably not large enough on their own to entice a formal Audible presence, but there are much bigger market potential out there and I’m sure Bob Carrigan will be watching Spotify’s every move.

Don’t rule out further Audible territorial expansion as this decade unfolds.

While Audible’s focus on creating audio spectacles (if that’s not a contradiction in terms), is a natural next stage in audio evolution, don’t rule out further Audible territorial expansion as this decade unfolds.

The BISG Award: Institutional Recognition

In April 2025, the Book Industry Study Group awarded Spotify its prestigious Industry Innovator Award at its Annual Meeting in New York. The recognition was for “redefining what modern publishing can look like” and “not only bolstering the growth of audiobooks but also ushering in a fundamental change in how content is discovered, produced, and monetised.”

The symbolism was impossible to ignore. Just five years after the industry had laughed Spotify out of the room, the same industry was handing it awards for innovation and growth. The transformation from pariah to poster child was complete.

As I wrote in The New Publishing Standard in May 2025: “When Spotify first announced its entry into the audiobook market in 2020, industry insiders met the news with derision and incredulity. Sceptics – among them long-standing gatekeepers of the traditional publishing world – laughed off the idea of a streaming service succeeding in a field they believed was reserved for established players.”

The recognition by BISG signals the dawn of a new era for publishing professionals. Sceptics once predicted the demise of traditional publishing formats in the wake of streaming. Dohle himself told a US judge during the PRH trial that subscription would destroy book retail in three years. That was almost exactly three years ago. Oops! The reality is that Spotify’s success illustrates that disruption, rather than heralding the end of an industry, can catalyse reinvention – one that integrates innovation with the timeless appeal of storytelling.

If the BISG does not give Audible the award this year for “redefining what modern publishing can look like” with its Harry Potter full-cast audio, then the BISG is not fit for purpose.

And let me close this section by adding that, if the BISG does not give Audible the award this year for “redefining what modern publishing can look like” with its Harry Potter full-cast audio, then the BISG is not fit for purpose.

The Bigger Picture: What Spotify Means for Global Publishing

Spotify’s audiobook success matters far beyond the company itself. It represents a fundamental shift in how publishing operates in the digital age.

For decades, the Anglo-American publishing establishment operated as a closed system. Big publishers in mature markets remained ideologically wedded to, and financially invested in, print-first models. Digital subscription was dismissed as viable only in a handful of markets. Territorial restrictions – historical anachronisms from when print was the only meaningful option – artificially constrained access to content.

And here both Audible and Spotify can take credit for the change in attitudes. Bob Carrigan’s early Audible led the way, long before Amazon acquired it and, with its own vision, kept Carrigan on as CEO. The shift from physical to digital audio in the US by Carrigan, was on par with the Netflix decision to shift to digital video and Spotify in embrace digital music in redefining creative entertainment for the twenty-first century.

But while unlimited became the new black in music and video, in books resistance from Old Guard influencers like Markus Dohle with his “bet on print” and indifference to global markets held the publishing industry back.

Lately Spotify has demonstrated that these assumptions were wrong. The unlimited subscription model works. Consumers in emerging markets welcome it. Younger audiences prefer it. Publishers benefit from it. Authors reach readers who would never have found their work otherwise.

The parallels with music streaming are impossible to ignore. Just as Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, and others proved that unlimited music streaming could revive a dying industry, Spotify Audiobooks is proving that unlimited access can expand book publishing into territories and demographics previously considered unreachable.

Crucially, Spotify is expanding the market rather than cannibalising it. In the UK, US, and Australia, audiobook listening hours on Spotify are up more than 35% year over year. These aren’t hours stolen from other audiobook services; they’re incremental consumption by new listeners – many discovering audiobooks for the first time. The rising tide lifts all boats.

Amanda D’Acierno’s observation bears repeating: Spotify is “reaching people who don’t go to bookstores often.” These are new readers, new listeners, new revenue streams. The expanded market benefits everyone – publishers, authors, retailers, and most importantly, consumers.

The Tsunami Arrives

In August 2020, I predicted that Spotify’s move into audiobooks was “a seismic shift in the publishing landscape, but the ripples will take time to be felt.” I compared it to an earthquake at sea, barely noticed at the time, that would set in motion stormy waves and possibly a tsunami.

Five years later, that tsunami has arrived – and it’s transforming everything it touches.

Five years later, that tsunami has arrived – and it’s transforming everything it touches.

The industry gatekeepers who scoffed in 2020 have been comprehensively proven wrong. Markus Dohle’s dire warnings about subscription destroying retail and author income have been exposed as protectionist scaremongering. Nicola Solomon’s predictions of “devastating impact” have failed to materialise. Instead, we’ve seen the opposite: expanding markets, growing revenues, new audiences, and renewed vitality across the publishing ecosystem.

Spotify now operates in 14 markets (plus pilots) with over 500,000 titles, paying hundreds of millions of dollars annually to rights holders. Publishers like Bloomsbury, Lagardère, and HarperCollins credit Spotify with driving double-digit growth in audio sales. The Association of American Publishers reports audiobook revenues soared 23% in 2024. UK audiobook revenue hit a record £268 million, up 31% year over year.

These aren’t statistics of an industry under threat; they’re the numbers of an industry undergoing renaissance.

As we look forward, the lessons are clear. The publishing industry ignored Spotify’s potential at its peril in 2020. Those who embraced the platform early – or pivoted quickly once results became undeniable – have reaped rewards. Those who clung to gatekeeping impulses and protectionist instincts have been left scrambling to catch up.

The 2020s are proving to be the decade when subscription comes of age in publishing, just as it did in music a decade earlier. By 2030, the publishing landscape will be as different from today as today is from 2010. Spotify hasn’t just entered the audiobook market; it’s redefined what that market can be – more accessible, more global, more diverse, and more dynamic than the gatekeepers ever imagined possible. Meanwhile Audible has redefined what audio can be.

The ripples have arrived. The tsunami is here. And publishing will never be the same again.

This post first appeared in the TNPS LinkedIn newsletter.